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QPR vs Derby — Championship 2025

QPR
QPR
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Derby
Derby
R. Edwards 66'
I. Chair 57', 21'
K. Saito 35'
2/14/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 33MATRADE Loftus Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

QPR46%
×Draw28%
Derby26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.36
Derby
0.96

QPR creates 42% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 34 away

creates per match

QPR
1.38
Derby
0.98

allows per match

QPR
0.94
Derby
1.35

finishing

QPR+0.19scores more
Derby+0.26scores more

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

QPR or draw
74%
QPR or Derby
72%
Draw or Derby
54%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
22%
Derby wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
74%
QPR 2+ goals
39%
QPR 3+ goals
16%
Derby 1+ goals
62%
Derby 2+ goals
25%
Derby 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
63%
Derby (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.94 · 14 matches

Derby away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.38 + Derby defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.36

Derby attack 0.98 + QPR defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

QPR scores more
46%
level
28%
Derby scores more
26%

QPR at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
I. ChairQPRQPR · M
9.2

Match Events

21'
I. Chair
35'
K. Saito
46'
T. Barkhuizen← L. Salvesen
57'
I. Chair↳ Yang Min-Hyeok
63'
K. Morgan← S. Field
63'
P. Smyth← Yang Min-Hyeok
65'
Nathaniel Méndez-Laing
66'
R. Edwards↳ K. Paal
67'
K. Jackson← N. Mendez-Laing
67'
K. Goudmijn← B. Osborn
73'
N. Madsen← I. Chair
73'
A. Lloyd← M. Frey
84'
L. Morrison← S. Cook
85'
H. Armstrong← E. Adams
90+4'
Kayden Jackson

Possession

49%QPR

Shots

12QPR

Pass accuracy

51%QPR

Statistics

QPRDerby
Overview
49%Possession51%
12Total Shots7
0.88Expected Goals (xG)0.56
2Corners3
9Fouls14
Shots
12Total Shots7
5On Target1
3Off Target3
4Blocked3
7Inside Box5
5Outside Box2
Passing
49%Possession51%
415Total Passes430
336Accurate Passes331
81%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
-2.55Goals Prevented-2.55
Discipline
9Fouls14
0Yellow Cards2
5Offsides1

QPR 4 – 0 Derby

QPR beat Derby 4-0 in Championship on February 14, 2025.

Goals: I. Chair (21', 57'), K. Saito (35'), R. Edwards (66').

Derby controlled possession (51%) and registered 7 shots to 12.

The match was played at MATRADE Loftus Road in London.