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QPR vs Derby — Championship 2025

QPR
QPR
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Derby
Derby
L. Amos 88'
4/18/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 43Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

QPR47%
×Draw27%
Derby26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.38
Derby
0.95

QPR creates 45% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 34 away

creates per match

QPR
1.41
Derby
0.98

allows per match

QPR
0.91
Derby
1.35

finishing

QPR+0.12scores more
Derby+0.26scores more

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

QPR or draw
74%
QPR or Derby
73%
Draw or Derby
53%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
22%
Derby wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
75%
QPR 2+ goals
40%
QPR 3+ goals
16%
Derby 1+ goals
61%
Derby 2+ goals
25%
Derby 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
64%
Derby (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.91 · 15 matches

Derby away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.41 + Derby defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.38

Derby attack 0.98 + QPR defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

QPR scores more
47%
level
27%
Derby scores more
26%

QPR at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
I. ChairQPRQPR · M
7.9

Match Events

56'
Tom Lawrence
58'
O. Kakay← M. Odubajo
59'
Andre Dozzell
64'
R. Morrison← K. Bielik
71'
C. Austin← G. Thomas
72'
Samuel Field
75'
S. Johansen← A. Dozzell
75'
L. Sibley← J. Knight
85'
B. Cybulski← L. Buchanan
88'
L. Amos↳ L. Dykes
90+8'
Tom Lawrence
90+8'
Tom Lawrence

Possession

44%QPR

Shots

14QPR

Pass accuracy

49%QPR

Statistics

QPRDerby
Overview
44%Possession56%
14Total Shots13
6Corners5
13Fouls8
Shots
14Total Shots13
6On Target2
3Off Target4
5Blocked7
6Inside Box10
8Outside Box3
Passing
44%Possession56%
350Total Passes446
269Accurate Passes358
77%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls8
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
2Offsides0

Match Recap: QPR vs Derby

QPR beat Derby 1-0 in Championship on April 18, 2022.

Goals: L. Amos (88').

Derby controlled possession (56%) and registered 13 shots to 14.

The match was played at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium in London.