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QPR vs Derby — Championship 2018

QPR
QPR
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Derby
Derby
G. Cameron 48'
J. Marriott 24'
10/6/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 12Loftus Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 45+ matches

QPR42%
×Draw28%
Derby30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.31
Derby
1.06

QPR creates 24% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 45 away

creates per match

QPR
1.31
Derby
1.01

allows per match

QPR
1.12
Derby
1.32

finishing

QPR+0.09on par
Derby+0.28scores more

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

QPR or draw
70%
QPR or Derby
72%
Draw or Derby
58%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
19%
Derby wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
73%
QPR 2+ goals
38%
QPR 3+ goals
14%
Derby 1+ goals
65%
Derby 2+ goals
29%
Derby 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
58%
Derby (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.12 · 58 matches

Derby away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.32 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.31 + Derby defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Derby attack 1.01 + QPR defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

QPR scores more
42%
level
28%
Derby scores more
30%

QPR at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32
N. WellsQPRQPR · F
8.1

Match Events

9'
Àngel Rangel
9'
Tom Lawrence
24'
J. Marriott↳ B. Johnson
30'
P. Wszołek← J. Bidwell
37'
Massimo Luongo
48'
G. Cameron↳ N. Wells
54'
H. Wilson← F. Jozefzoon
69'
T. Hemed← J. Cousins
75'
T. Huddlestone← B. Johnson
78'
M. Waghorn← T. Lawrence
83'
Craig Bryson
86'
Toni Leistner
90+3'
M. Smith← E. Eze

Possession

44%QPR

Shots

13QPR

Pass accuracy

49%QPR

Statistics

QPRDerby
Overview
44%Possession56%
13Total Shots14
1Corners10
19Fouls12
Shots
13Total Shots14
3On Target5
8Off Target3
2Blocked6
7Inside Box6
6Outside Box8
Passing
44%Possession56%
360Total Passes456
253Accurate Passes329
70%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
19Fouls12
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
2Offsides0

QPR 1 – 1 Derby

QPR and Derby drew 1-1 in Championship on October 6, 2018.

Goals: J. Marriott (24'), G. Cameron (48').

Derby controlled possession (56%) and registered 14 shots to 13.

The match was played at Loftus Road in London.