QPR 1–0 Aston Villa: Result & Stats | Championship

QPR

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Aston Villa

P. Wszołek 38'

10/26/2018

Championship · Round 15Loftus Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

QPR25%

×Draw26%

Aston Villa49%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

QPRExpected goals in this matchAston Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.52

QPR

1.01

Aston Villa

1.52

Aston Villa creates 50% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 8 away

1.40

creates per match

1.50

1.53

allows per match

0.63

creates per match

QPR

1.40

Aston Villa

1.50

allows per match

QPR

1.53

Aston Villa

0.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

QPR+0.00on par

Aston Villa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Aston Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

QPR or draw

51%

QPR or Aston Villa

74%

Draw or Aston Villa

75%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+

9%

Aston Villa wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals

64%

QPR 2+ goals

27%

QPR 3+ goals

8%

Aston Villa 1+ goals

78%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

45%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)

34%

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.53 · 55 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.40 + Aston Villa defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.01

Aston Villa attack 1.50 + QPR defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

QPR scores more

25%

level

26%

Aston Villa scores more

49%

Aston Villa at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Aston Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Grealish

Aston Villa · M

8.2

Match Events

29'

Joel Lynch

38'

P. Wszołek↳ G. Cameron

41'

G. Whelan← B. Bjarnason

62'

N. Wells← T. Hemed

62'

Y. Bolasie← Ahmed El Mohamady

70'

J. Scowen← G. Cameron

80'

Paweł Wszołek

82'

Massimo Luongo

90+1'

M. Smith← E. Eze

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

QPRAston

Overview

32%Possession68%

16Total Shots18

5Corners9

23Fouls12

Shots

16Total Shots18

7On Target5

6Off Target5

3Blocked8

7Inside Box11

9Outside Box7

Passing

32%Possession68%

257Total Passes541

167Accurate Passes463

65%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

5Saves6

Discipline

23Fouls12

3Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

0Offsides4