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Aston Villa vs QPR — Championship 2025

Aston Villa
Aston Villa
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
QPR
QPR
T. Abraham 75', 21'
E. Eze 57'
L. Freeman 41'
1/1/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 26Villa Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Aston Villa42%
×Draw27%
QPR31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aston Villa
1.39
QPR
1.16

Aston Villa creates 20% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 51 away

creates per match

Aston Villa
1.50
QPR
0.94

allows per match

Aston Villa
1.38
QPR
1.27

finishing

Aston Villa+0.00on par
QPR+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa ↓

QPR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Aston Villa or draw
69%
Aston Villa or QPR
73%
Draw or QPR
58%

Winning margin

Aston Villa wins by 2+
20%
QPR wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Aston Villa 1+ goals
75%
Aston Villa 2+ goals
40%
Aston Villa 3+ goals
16%
QPR 1+ goals
69%
QPR 2+ goals
32%
QPR 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa (draw refunded)
57%
QPR (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

QPR away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa attack 1.50 + QPR defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.39

QPR attack 0.94 + Aston Villa defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Aston Villa scores more
42%
level
27%
QPR scores more
31%

Aston Villa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Aston Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
T. AbrahamAston VillaAston Villa · F
8.6

Match Events

21'
T. Abraham↳ J. McGinn
30'
Paweł Wszołek
41'
L. Freeman↳ N. Wells
45'
Conor Hourihane
49'
Jonathan Kodjia
57'
E. Eze↳ P. Wszołek
61'
Y. Bolasie← A. Adomah
61'
A. El Ghazi← J. Kodjia
69'
Toni Leistner
71'
M. Smith← N. Wells
75'
T. Abraham↳ A. El Ghazi
77'
B. Osayi-Samuel← P. Wszołek
90'
Jake Bidwell
90'
Joe Lumley
90'
Bright Osayi-Samuel
90+1'
G. Whelan← C. Hourihane
90+7'
G. Hall← E. Eze

Possession

60%Aston

Shots

22Aston

Pass accuracy

53%Aston

Statistics

AstonQPR
Overview
60%Possession40%
22Total Shots11
9Corners1
10Fouls21
Shots
22Total Shots11
5On Target4
10Off Target4
7Blocked3
12Inside Box8
10Outside Box3
Passing
60%Possession40%
485Total Passes329
376Accurate Passes226
78%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls21
2Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards0
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Aston Villa vs QPR

Aston Villa and QPR drew 2-2 in Championship on January 1, 2019.

Goals: T. Abraham (21', 75'), L. Freeman (41'), E. Eze (57').

Aston Villa controlled possession (60%) and registered 22 shots to 11.

The match was played at Villa Park in Birmingham.