QPR 1–2 Arsenal: Result & Stats | Premier League

QPR

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Arsenal

C. Austin 82'

A. Sánchez 69'

O. Giroud 64'

3/4/2015

Premier League · Round 28Loftus Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

QPR32%

×Draw25%

Arsenal43%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

QPRExpected goals in this matchArsenal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.52

QPR

1.27

Arsenal

1.52

Arsenal creates 20% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 208 away

1.30

creates per match

1.64

1.40

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

QPR

1.30

Arsenal

1.64

allows per match

QPR

1.40

Arsenal

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

QPR+0.00on par

Arsenal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Arsenal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

QPR or draw

57%

QPR or Arsenal

75%

Draw or Arsenal

68%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+

14%

Arsenal wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals

72%

QPR 2+ goals

36%

QPR 3+ goals

14%

Arsenal 1+ goals

78%

Arsenal 2+ goals

45%

Arsenal 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)

42%

Arsenal (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

Arsenal away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.25 · 208 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.30 + Arsenal defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Arsenal attack 1.64 + QPR defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

QPR scores more

32%

level

25%

Arsenal scores more

43%

Arsenal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

Karl Henry

34'

Héctor Bellerín

37'

L. Koscielny← Gabriel Paulista

45'

56'

64'

69'

73'

80'

82'

C. Austin↳ M. Phillips

87'

A. Ramsey← T. Rosický

90+3'

D. Welbeck← M. Özil

Possession

Statistics

QPRArsenal

Overview

40%Possession60%

1Corners6

10Fouls12

Shots

5On Target8

5Off Target3

Passing

40%Possession60%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls12

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

4Offsides2

Premier League: QPR 1–2 Arsenal

Arsenal beat QPR 2-1 in Premier League on March 4, 2015.

Goals: O. Giroud (64'), A. Sánchez (69'), C. Austin (82').

Arsenal dominated possession with 60% of the ball.

The match was played at Loftus Road in London.

QPR vs Arsenal — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Statistics

Premier League: QPR 1–2 Arsenal