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QPR vs Arsenal — Premier League 2026

QPR
QPR
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Arsenal
Arsenal
5/4/2013Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 36Loftus Road Stadium (London)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

QPR31%
×Draw26%
Arsenal43%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.21
Arsenal
1.48

Arsenal creates 22% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 210 away

creates per match

QPR
1.17
Arsenal
1.63

allows per match

QPR
1.33
Arsenal
1.24

finishing

QPR+0.00on par
Arsenal+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Arsenal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

QPR or draw
57%
QPR or Arsenal
74%
Draw or Arsenal
69%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
13%
Arsenal wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
70%
QPR 2+ goals
34%
QPR 3+ goals
12%
Arsenal 1+ goals
77%
Arsenal 2+ goals
43%
Arsenal 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
42%
Arsenal (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 24 matches

Arsenal away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.24 · 210 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.17 + Arsenal defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Arsenal attack 1.63 + QPR defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

QPR scores more
31%
level
26%
Arsenal scores more
43%

Arsenal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: QPR 0–1 Arsenal

Arsenal beat QPR 1-0 in Premier League on May 4, 2013.

The match was played at Loftus Road Stadium (London).