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Qingdao Youth Island vs Henan Jianye — Super League 2026

Qingdao Youth Island
Qingdao Youth Island
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Henan Jianye
Henan Jianye
3/1/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 1Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Qingdao Youth Island42%
×Draw24%
Henan Jianye34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qingdao Youth Island
1.61
Henan Jianye
1.44

Qingdao Youth Island creates 12% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

creates per match

Qingdao Youth Island
1.64
Henan Jianye
1.47

allows per match

Qingdao Youth Island
1.40
Henan Jianye
1.59

finishing

Qingdao Youth Island+0.07on par
Henan Jianye-0.56scores less

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Youth Island ↓

Henan Jianye →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Qingdao Youth Island or draw
66%
Qingdao Youth Island or Henan Jianye
76%
Draw or Henan Jianye
58%

Winning margin

Qingdao Youth Island wins by 2+
21%
Henan Jianye wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Qingdao Youth Island 1+ goals
80%
Qingdao Youth Island 2+ goals
48%
Qingdao Youth Island 3+ goals
22%
Henan Jianye 1+ goals
76%
Henan Jianye 2+ goals
42%
Henan Jianye 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Youth Island (draw refunded)
55%
Henan Jianye (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Youth Island at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.40 · 7 matches

Henan Jianye away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.59 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.64 + Henan Jianye defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.61

Henan Jianye attack 1.47 + Qingdao Youth Island defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Qingdao Youth Island scores more
42%
level
24%
Henan Jianye scores more
34%

Qingdao Youth Island at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Qingdao Youth Island will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Qingdao Youth Island vs Henan Jianye

Qingdao Youth Island and Henan Jianye drew 1-1 in Super League on March 1, 2024.

The match was played at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium in Qingdao.