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Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island — Super League 2026

Henan Jianye
Henan Jianye
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Qingdao Youth Island
Qingdao Youth Island
6/25/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 16Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Henan Jianye60%
×Draw20%
Qingdao Youth Island21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Henan Jianye
2.29
Qingdao Youth Island
1.28

Henan Jianye creates 79% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

Henan Jianye
2.11
Qingdao Youth Island
1.50

allows per match

Henan Jianye
1.06
Qingdao Youth Island
2.46

finishing

Henan Jianye+0.11scores more
Qingdao Youth Island-0.10scores less

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Henan Jianye ↓

Qingdao Youth Island →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Henan Jianye or draw
79%
Henan Jianye or Qingdao Youth Island
80%
Draw or Qingdao Youth Island
40%

Winning margin

Henan Jianye wins by 2+
38%
Qingdao Youth Island wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Henan Jianye 1+ goals
90%
Henan Jianye 2+ goals
66%
Henan Jianye 3+ goals
40%
Qingdao Youth Island 1+ goals
72%
Qingdao Youth Island 2+ goals
37%
Qingdao Youth Island 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Henan Jianye (draw refunded)
74%
Qingdao Youth Island (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Henan Jianye at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.06 · 9 matches

Qingdao Youth Island away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.46 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Henan Jianye attack 2.11 + Qingdao Youth Island defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.29

Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.50 + Henan Jianye defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Henan Jianye scores more
60%
level
20%
Qingdao Youth Island scores more
21%

Henan Jianye at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Henan Jianye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island

Henan Jianye beat Qingdao Youth Island 1-0 in Super League on June 25, 2024.

The match was played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium in Zhengzhou.