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Qingdao Youth Island vs Guangxi Baoyun — League One 2026

Qingdao Youth Island
Qingdao Youth Island
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Guangxi Baoyun
Guangxi Baoyun
11/20/2022League OneLeague One · Round 30Tangshan Nanhu City Football Training Base Field No.1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Qingdao Youth Island50%
×Draw27%
Guangxi Baoyun23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qingdao Youth Island
1.43
Guangxi Baoyun
0.89

Qingdao Youth Island creates 61% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 63 away

creates per match

Qingdao Youth Island
1.61
Guangxi Baoyun
0.86

allows per match

Qingdao Youth Island
0.91
Guangxi Baoyun
1.25

finishing

Qingdao Youth Island+0.00on par
Guangxi Baoyun+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Youth Island ↓

Guangxi Baoyun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Qingdao Youth Island or draw
77%
Qingdao Youth Island or Guangxi Baoyun
73%
Draw or Guangxi Baoyun
50%

Winning margin

Qingdao Youth Island wins by 2+
24%
Guangxi Baoyun wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Qingdao Youth Island 1+ goals
76%
Qingdao Youth Island 2+ goals
42%
Qingdao Youth Island 3+ goals
17%
Guangxi Baoyun 1+ goals
59%
Guangxi Baoyun 2+ goals
22%
Guangxi Baoyun 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Youth Island (draw refunded)
68%
Guangxi Baoyun (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Youth Island at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.91 · 33 matches

Guangxi Baoyun away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.25 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.61 + Guangxi Baoyun defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.43

Guangxi Baoyun attack 0.86 + Qingdao Youth Island defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Qingdao Youth Island scores more
50%
level
27%
Guangxi Baoyun scores more
23%

Qingdao Youth Island at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Qingdao Youth Island will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Qingdao Youth Island 1 – 1 Guangxi Baoyun

Qingdao Youth Island and Guangxi Baoyun drew 1-1 in League One on November 20, 2022.

The match was played at Tangshan Nanhu City Football Training Base Field No.1 in Tangshan.