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Guangxi Baoyun vs Qingdao Youth Island — League One 2026

Guangxi Baoyun
Guangxi Baoyun
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Qingdao Youth Island
Qingdao Youth Island
10/28/2022League OneLeague One · Round 25Tangshan Nanhu City Football Training Base Field No.3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Guangxi Baoyun39%
×Draw28%
Qingdao Youth Island32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangxi Baoyun
1.23
Qingdao Youth Island
1.09

Guangxi Baoyun creates 13% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 32 away

creates per match

Guangxi Baoyun
1.32
Qingdao Youth Island
1.19

allows per match

Guangxi Baoyun
1.00
Qingdao Youth Island
1.13

finishing

Guangxi Baoyun+0.00on par
Qingdao Youth Island+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangxi Baoyun ↓

Qingdao Youth Island →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Guangxi Baoyun or draw
68%
Guangxi Baoyun or Qingdao Youth Island
72%
Draw or Qingdao Youth Island
61%

Winning margin

Guangxi Baoyun wins by 2+
17%
Qingdao Youth Island wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Guangxi Baoyun 1+ goals
71%
Guangxi Baoyun 2+ goals
35%
Guangxi Baoyun 3+ goals
13%
Qingdao Youth Island 1+ goals
66%
Qingdao Youth Island 2+ goals
30%
Qingdao Youth Island 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Guangxi Baoyun (draw refunded)
55%
Qingdao Youth Island (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangxi Baoyun at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.00 · 63 matches

Qingdao Youth Island away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.13 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangxi Baoyun attack 1.32 + Qingdao Youth Island defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.19 + Guangxi Baoyun defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Guangxi Baoyun scores more
39%
level
28%
Qingdao Youth Island scores more
32%

Guangxi Baoyun at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Guangxi Baoyun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Guangxi Baoyun 0–0 Qingdao Youth Island

Guangxi Baoyun and Qingdao Youth Island drew 0-0 in League One on October 28, 2022.

The match was played at Tangshan Nanhu City Football Training Base Field No.3 in Tangshan.