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Qingdao Youth Island vs Dantong Hantong — League One 2018

Qingdao Youth Island
Qingdao Youth Island
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dantong Hantong
Dantong Hantong
6/3/2023League OneLeague One · Round 8Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Qingdao Youth Island53%
×Draw27%
Dantong Hantong20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qingdao Youth Island
1.44
Dantong Hantong
0.76

Qingdao Youth Island creates 89% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 15 away

creates per match

Qingdao Youth Island
1.61
Dantong Hantong
0.60

allows per match

Qingdao Youth Island
0.91
Dantong Hantong
1.27

finishing

Qingdao Youth Island+0.00on par
Dantong Hantong+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Youth Island ↓

Dantong Hantong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Qingdao Youth Island or draw
80%
Qingdao Youth Island or Dantong Hantong
73%
Draw or Dantong Hantong
47%

Winning margin

Qingdao Youth Island wins by 2+
27%
Dantong Hantong wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Qingdao Youth Island 1+ goals
76%
Qingdao Youth Island 2+ goals
42%
Qingdao Youth Island 3+ goals
18%
Dantong Hantong 1+ goals
53%
Dantong Hantong 2+ goals
18%
Dantong Hantong 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Youth Island (draw refunded)
73%
Dantong Hantong (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Youth Island at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.91 · 33 matches

Dantong Hantong away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.61 + Dantong Hantong defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.44

Dantong Hantong attack 0.60 + Qingdao Youth Island defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Qingdao Youth Island scores more
53%
level
27%
Dantong Hantong scores more
20%

Qingdao Youth Island at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Qingdao Youth Island will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Qingdao Youth Island 0–0 Dantong Hantong

Qingdao Youth Island and Dantong Hantong drew 0-0 in League One on June 3, 2023.

The match was played at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center in Qingdao.