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Dantong Hantong vs Qingdao Youth Island — League One 2018

Dantong Hantong
Dantong Hantong
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Qingdao Youth Island
Qingdao Youth Island
9/13/2023League OneLeague One · Round 23Huludao City Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dantong Hantong36%
×Draw27%
Qingdao Youth Island37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dantong Hantong
1.20
Qingdao Youth Island
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 32 away

creates per match

Dantong Hantong
1.27
Qingdao Youth Island
1.19

allows per match

Dantong Hantong
1.27
Qingdao Youth Island
1.13

finishing

Dantong Hantong+0.00on par
Qingdao Youth Island+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dantong Hantong ↓

Qingdao Youth Island →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dantong Hantong or draw
63%
Dantong Hantong or Qingdao Youth Island
73%
Draw or Qingdao Youth Island
64%

Winning margin

Dantong Hantong wins by 2+
15%
Qingdao Youth Island wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Dantong Hantong 1+ goals
70%
Dantong Hantong 2+ goals
34%
Dantong Hantong 3+ goals
12%
Qingdao Youth Island 1+ goals
71%
Qingdao Youth Island 2+ goals
35%
Qingdao Youth Island 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Dantong Hantong (draw refunded)
49%
Qingdao Youth Island (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dantong Hantong at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Qingdao Youth Island away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.13 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dantong Hantong attack 1.27 + Qingdao Youth Island defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.20

Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.19 + Dantong Hantong defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dantong Hantong scores more
36%
level
27%
Qingdao Youth Island scores more
37%

Qingdao Youth Island at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Qingdao Youth Island will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Dantong Hantong 2–2 Qingdao Youth Island

Dantong Hantong and Qingdao Youth Island drew 2-2 in League One on September 13, 2023.

The match was played at Huludao City Sports Center Stadium in Huludao.