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Qingdao Youth Island vs Chengdu Better City — Super League 2018

Qingdao Youth Island
Qingdao Youth Island
Preview
11:00
Chengdu Better City
Chengdu Better City
7/17/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 19Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center
Big match
41%
Chengdu Better City
model favours
35%24%41%

Both teams score in 92% of Qingdao Youth Island’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Qingdao Youth Island35%
×Draw24%
Chengdu Better City41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qingdao Youth Island
1.46
Chengdu Better City
1.61

Chengdu Better City creates 10% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Qingdao Youth Island
1.73
Chengdu Better City
1.73

allows per match

Qingdao Youth Island
1.50
Chengdu Better City
1.20

finishing

Qingdao Youth Island+0.10scores more
Chengdu Better City+0.87scores more

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Youth Island ↓

Chengdu Better City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Qingdao Youth Island or draw
59%
Qingdao Youth Island or Chengdu Better City
76%
Draw or Chengdu Better City
65%

Winning margin

Qingdao Youth Island wins by 2+
16%
Chengdu Better City wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Qingdao Youth Island 1+ goals
77%
Qingdao Youth Island 2+ goals
43%
Qingdao Youth Island 3+ goals
18%
Chengdu Better City 1+ goals
80%
Chengdu Better City 2+ goals
48%
Chengdu Better City 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Youth Island (draw refunded)
46%
Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Youth Island at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Chengdu Better City away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.73 + Chengdu Better City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.46

Chengdu Better City attack 1.73 + Qingdao Youth Island defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Qingdao Youth Island scores more
35%
level
24%
Chengdu Better City scores more
41%

Chengdu Better City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Chengdu Better City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Qingdao Youth Island score first in only 31% of matches
  • 44% of Qingdao Youth Island’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Qingdao Youth Island win just 15% against the top half (vs 45% against the bottom)
  • Chengdu Better City win just 44% against the top half (vs 69% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Style contrast — Qingdao Youth Island play Direct / counter-attacking, Chengdu Better City Possession-dominant

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Qingdao Youth Island
Direct / counter-attacking
Chengdu Better City
Possession-dominant
43%Possession59%
75%Pass accuracy82%
11.5ShotsBiggest gap15.8
1.62xG2.10
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Qingdao Youth IslandChengdu Better City

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

0
Qingdao Youth Island
3
Draws
2
Chengdu Better City
Avg goals: 4.2BTTS: 80%
1–52–21–11–10–7

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Island
LWWDD
City
DDWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Qingdao Youth Island face Chengdu Better City (Super League)

Super League returns with Qingdao Youth Island hosting Chengdu Better City. Match starts July 17, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Qingdao Youth Island host Chengdu Better City at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.