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Qingdao Youth Island vs Chengdu Better City — Super League 2018

Qingdao Youth Island
Qingdao Youth Island
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Chengdu Better City
Chengdu Better City
10/27/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 29Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Qingdao Youth Island38%
×Draw24%
Chengdu Better City38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qingdao Youth Island
1.54
Chengdu Better City
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Qingdao Youth Island
1.73
Chengdu Better City
1.60

allows per match

Qingdao Youth Island
1.50
Chengdu Better City
1.36

finishing

Qingdao Youth Island+0.10scores more
Chengdu Better City+0.90scores more

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Youth Island ↓

Chengdu Better City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Qingdao Youth Island or draw
62%
Qingdao Youth Island or Chengdu Better City
76%
Draw or Chengdu Better City
62%

Winning margin

Qingdao Youth Island wins by 2+
18%
Chengdu Better City wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Qingdao Youth Island 1+ goals
79%
Qingdao Youth Island 2+ goals
45%
Qingdao Youth Island 3+ goals
20%
Chengdu Better City 1+ goals
79%
Chengdu Better City 2+ goals
46%
Chengdu Better City 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Youth Island (draw refunded)
50%
Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Youth Island at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Chengdu Better City away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.36 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.73 + Chengdu Better City defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.54

Chengdu Better City attack 1.60 + Qingdao Youth Island defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Qingdao Youth Island scores more
38%
level
24%
Chengdu Better City scores more
38%

Qingdao Youth Island at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Qingdao Youth Island will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Qingdao Youth Island vs Chengdu Better City

Qingdao Youth Island and Chengdu Better City drew 1-1 in Super League on October 27, 2024.

The match was played at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium in Qingdao.