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Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island — Super League 2018

Chengdu Better City
Chengdu Better City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Qingdao Youth Island
Qingdao Youth Island
5/17/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 13Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Chengdu Better City62%
×Draw19%
Qingdao Youth Island19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chengdu Better City
2.39
Qingdao Youth Island
1.27

Chengdu Better City creates 88% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

Chengdu Better City
2.32
Qingdao Youth Island
1.50

allows per match

Chengdu Better City
1.03
Qingdao Youth Island
2.46

finishing

Chengdu Better City-0.88scores less
Qingdao Youth Island-0.10scores less

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chengdu Better City ↓

Qingdao Youth Island →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Chengdu Better City or draw
81%
Chengdu Better City or Qingdao Youth Island
81%
Draw or Qingdao Youth Island
38%

Winning margin

Chengdu Better City wins by 2+
40%
Qingdao Youth Island wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Chengdu Better City 1+ goals
91%
Chengdu Better City 2+ goals
69%
Chengdu Better City 3+ goals
42%
Qingdao Youth Island 1+ goals
72%
Qingdao Youth Island 2+ goals
36%
Qingdao Youth Island 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)
76%
Qingdao Youth Island (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chengdu Better City at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.03 · 9 matches

Qingdao Youth Island away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.46 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chengdu Better City attack 2.32 + Qingdao Youth Island defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.39

Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.50 + Chengdu Better City defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Chengdu Better City scores more
62%
level
19%
Qingdao Youth Island scores more
19%

Chengdu Better City at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Chengdu Better City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island

Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Youth Island drew 1-1 in Super League on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park in Chengdu.