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Progresso vs Benfica Luanda — Girabola 2019

Progresso
Progresso
CANC
15:00
Benfica Luanda
Benfica Luanda
9/23/2016GirabolaGirabola · Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Progresso34%
×Draw32%
Benfica Luanda34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Progresso
0.95
Benfica Luanda
0.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 22 away

creates per match

Progresso
1.04
Benfica Luanda
0.82

allows per match

Progresso
1.10
Benfica Luanda
0.86

finishing

Progresso+0.00on par
Benfica Luanda+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progresso ↓

Benfica Luanda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Progresso or draw
66%
Progresso or Benfica Luanda
68%
Draw or Benfica Luanda
66%

Winning margin

Progresso wins by 2+
12%
Benfica Luanda wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Progresso 1+ goals
61%
Progresso 2+ goals
25%
Progresso 3+ goals
7%
Benfica Luanda 1+ goals
62%
Benfica Luanda 2+ goals
25%
Benfica Luanda 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Progresso (draw refunded)
50%
Benfica Luanda (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progresso at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.10 · 50 matches

Benfica Luanda away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progresso attack 1.04 + Benfica Luanda defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.95

Benfica Luanda attack 0.82 + Progresso defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Progresso scores more
34%
level
32%
Benfica Luanda scores more
34%

Progresso at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Progresso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Progresso host Benfica Luanda

September 23, 2016: Progresso take on Benfica Luanda in Girabola. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.