Benfica Luanda 2–1 Progresso: Result & Stats

Benfica Luanda

FT

2 – 1

Progresso

8/27/2014

Girabola · Round 22Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Benfica Luanda57%

×Draw26%

Progresso17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Benfica LuandaExpected goals in this matchProgresso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.71

Benfica Luanda

1.52

Progresso

0.71

Benfica Luanda creates 114% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 56 away

1.30

creates per match

0.66

0.75

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Benfica Luanda

1.30

Progresso

0.66

allows per match

Benfica Luanda

0.75

Progresso

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benfica Luanda+0.00on par

Progresso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica Luanda ↓

Progresso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Benfica Luanda or draw

83%

Benfica Luanda or Progresso

74%

Draw or Progresso

43%

Winning margin

Benfica Luanda wins by 2+

30%

Progresso wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Benfica Luanda 1+ goals

78%

Benfica Luanda 2+ goals

45%

Benfica Luanda 3+ goals

20%

Progresso 1+ goals

51%

Progresso 2+ goals

16%

Progresso 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Benfica Luanda (draw refunded)

77%

Progresso (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica Luanda at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.75 · 20 matches

Progresso away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.73 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica Luanda attack 1.30 + Progresso defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.52

Progresso attack 0.66 + Benfica Luanda defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Benfica Luanda scores more

57%

level

26%

Progresso scores more

17%

Benfica Luanda at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Benfica Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff