Qingdao Red Lions 1–1 Guangzhou Evergrande FC

Qingdao Red Lions

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

9/27/2024

League One · Round 25Qingdao Tiantai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Qingdao Red Lions30%

×Draw25%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Qingdao Red LionsExpected goals in this matchGuangzhou Evergrande FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.55

Qingdao Red Lions

1.22

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.55

Guangzhou Evergrande FC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

0.97

creates per match

1.57

1.53

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Qingdao Red Lions

0.97

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.57

allows per match

Qingdao Red Lions

1.53

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qingdao Red Lions+0.00on par

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Red Lions ↓

Guangzhou Evergrande FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Qingdao Red Lions or draw

55%

Qingdao Red Lions or Guangzhou Evergrande FC

75%

Draw or Guangzhou Evergrande FC

70%

Winning margin

Qingdao Red Lions wins by 2+

12%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Qingdao Red Lions 1+ goals

70%

Qingdao Red Lions 2+ goals

34%

Qingdao Red Lions 3+ goals

12%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals

79%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals

46%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Red Lions (draw refunded)

40%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Red Lions at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Red Lions attack 0.97 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.22

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.57 + Qingdao Red Lions defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Qingdao Red Lions scores more

30%

level

25%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more

45%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff