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Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Qingdao Red Lions — League One 2018

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Qingdao Red Lions
Qingdao Red Lions
5/12/2024League OneLeague One · Round 10Huadu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC48%
×Draw26%
Qingdao Red Lions26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.47
Qingdao Red Lions
1.01

Guangzhou Evergrande FC creates 46% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.17
Qingdao Red Lions
0.90

allows per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.13
Qingdao Red Lions
1.77

finishing

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par
Qingdao Red Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou Evergrande FC ↓

Qingdao Red Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or draw
74%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Qingdao Red Lions
74%
Draw or Qingdao Red Lions
52%

Winning margin

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
24%
Qingdao Red Lions wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
77%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
43%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
18%
Qingdao Red Lions 1+ goals
64%
Qingdao Red Lions 2+ goals
27%
Qingdao Red Lions 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
65%
Qingdao Red Lions (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

Qingdao Red Lions away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.17 + Qingdao Red Lions defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.47

Qingdao Red Lions attack 0.90 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
48%
level
26%
Qingdao Red Lions scores more
26%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Qingdao Red Lions

Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Qingdao Red Lions drew 1-1 in League One on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Huadu Stadium in Guangzhou.