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Qingdao Red Lions vs Guangxi Lanhang — League Two 2022

Qingdao Red Lions
Qingdao Red Lions
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Guangxi Lanhang
Guangxi Lanhang
10/22/2023League TwoLeague Two · Promotion Group - 8Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Qingdao Red Lions46%
×Draw29%
Guangxi Lanhang25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qingdao Red Lions
1.27
Guangxi Lanhang
0.86

Qingdao Red Lions creates 48% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 40 away

creates per match

Qingdao Red Lions
1.04
Guangxi Lanhang
0.88

allows per match

Qingdao Red Lions
0.85
Guangxi Lanhang
1.50

finishing

Qingdao Red Lions+0.00on par
Guangxi Lanhang+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Red Lions ↓

Guangxi Lanhang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Qingdao Red Lions or draw
75%
Qingdao Red Lions or Guangxi Lanhang
71%
Draw or Guangxi Lanhang
54%

Winning margin

Qingdao Red Lions wins by 2+
21%
Guangxi Lanhang wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Qingdao Red Lions 1+ goals
72%
Qingdao Red Lions 2+ goals
36%
Qingdao Red Lions 3+ goals
14%
Guangxi Lanhang 1+ goals
58%
Guangxi Lanhang 2+ goals
21%
Guangxi Lanhang 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Red Lions (draw refunded)
65%
Guangxi Lanhang (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Red Lions at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.85 · 26 matches

Guangxi Lanhang away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.50 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Red Lions attack 1.04 + Guangxi Lanhang defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.27

Guangxi Lanhang attack 0.88 + Qingdao Red Lions defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Qingdao Red Lions scores more
46%
level
29%
Guangxi Lanhang scores more
25%

Qingdao Red Lions at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Qingdao Red Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Qingdao Red Lions vs Guangxi Lanhang

Qingdao Red Lions beat Guangxi Lanhang 3-0 in League Two on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center in Qingdao.