Guangxi Lanhang 1–1 Qingdao Red Lions

Guangxi Lanhang

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Qingdao Red Lions

9/10/2023

League Two · Promotion Group - 4Liuzhou Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Guangxi Lanhang26%

×Draw28%

Qingdao Red Lions46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guangxi LanhangExpected goals in this matchQingdao Red Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.33

Guangxi Lanhang

0.94

Qingdao Red Lions

1.33

Qingdao Red Lions creates 41% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 27 away

0.80

creates per match

0.96

1.70

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Guangxi Lanhang

0.80

Qingdao Red Lions

0.96

allows per match

Guangxi Lanhang

1.70

Qingdao Red Lions

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guangxi Lanhang+0.00on par

Qingdao Red Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangxi Lanhang ↓

Qingdao Red Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Guangxi Lanhang or draw

54%

Guangxi Lanhang or Qingdao Red Lions

72%

Draw or Qingdao Red Lions

74%

Winning margin

Guangxi Lanhang wins by 2+

9%

Qingdao Red Lions wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Guangxi Lanhang 1+ goals

61%

Guangxi Lanhang 2+ goals

24%

Guangxi Lanhang 3+ goals

7%

Qingdao Red Lions 1+ goals

74%

Qingdao Red Lions 2+ goals

38%

Qingdao Red Lions 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Guangxi Lanhang (draw refunded)

37%

Qingdao Red Lions (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangxi Lanhang at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.70 · 40 matches

Qingdao Red Lions away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangxi Lanhang attack 0.80 + Qingdao Red Lions defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.94

Qingdao Red Lions attack 0.96 + Guangxi Lanhang defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Guangxi Lanhang scores more

26%

level

28%

Qingdao Red Lions scores more

46%

Qingdao Red Lions at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Qingdao Red Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff