Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Qingdao Jonoon vs Shanghai Shenhua — FA Cup 2019

Qingdao Jonoon
Qingdao Jonoon
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhuaadvanced
11/7/2023FA CupFA Cup · Semi-finalsQingdao Youth Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Qingdao Jonoon19%
×Draw24%
Shanghai Shenhua56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qingdao Jonoon
0.86
Shanghai Shenhua
1.67

Shanghai Shenhua creates 94% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

creates per match

Qingdao Jonoon
1.11
Shanghai Shenhua
2.11

allows per match

Qingdao Jonoon
1.22
Shanghai Shenhua
0.61

finishing

Qingdao Jonoon+0.00on par
Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Jonoon ↓

Shanghai Shenhua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Qingdao Jonoon or draw
44%
Qingdao Jonoon or Shanghai Shenhua
76%
Draw or Shanghai Shenhua
81%

Winning margin

Qingdao Jonoon wins by 2+
6%
Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Qingdao Jonoon 1+ goals
58%
Qingdao Jonoon 2+ goals
21%
Qingdao Jonoon 3+ goals
6%
Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals
81%
Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals
50%
Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Jonoon (draw refunded)
25%
Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Jonoon at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Shanghai Shenhua away — creates 2.11, concedes 0.61 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.11 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.86

Shanghai Shenhua attack 2.11 + Qingdao Jonoon defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Qingdao Jonoon scores more
19%
level
24%
Shanghai Shenhua scores more
56%

Shanghai Shenhua at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Qingdao Jonoon 0–1 Shanghai Shenhua

Shanghai Shenhua beat Qingdao Jonoon 1-0 in FA Cup on November 7, 2023.

The match was played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium in Qingdao.