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Qingdao Jonoon vs Kunshan — League One 2018

Qingdao Jonoon
Qingdao Jonoon
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kunshan
Kunshan
7/9/2022League OneLeague One · Round 8Jiangsu Jiangning Football Training Base

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Qingdao Jonoon40%
×Draw25%
Kunshan34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qingdao Jonoon
1.47
Kunshan
1.34

Qingdao Jonoon creates 10% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 42 away

creates per match

Qingdao Jonoon
2.12
Kunshan
1.86

allows per match

Qingdao Jonoon
0.82
Kunshan
0.81

finishing

Qingdao Jonoon+0.00on par
Kunshan+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Jonoon ↓

Kunshan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Qingdao Jonoon or draw
66%
Qingdao Jonoon or Kunshan
75%
Draw or Kunshan
60%

Winning margin

Qingdao Jonoon wins by 2+
19%
Kunshan wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Qingdao Jonoon 1+ goals
77%
Qingdao Jonoon 2+ goals
43%
Qingdao Jonoon 3+ goals
18%
Kunshan 1+ goals
74%
Kunshan 2+ goals
39%
Kunshan 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Jonoon (draw refunded)
54%
Kunshan (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Jonoon at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Kunshan away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.81 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Jonoon attack 2.12 + Kunshan defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.47

Kunshan attack 1.86 + Qingdao Jonoon defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Qingdao Jonoon scores more
40%
level
25%
Kunshan scores more
34%

Qingdao Jonoon at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Qingdao Jonoon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Qingdao Jonoon 1–2 Kunshan

Kunshan beat Qingdao Jonoon 2-1 in League One on July 9, 2022.

The match was played at Jiangsu Jiangning Football Training Base in Nanjing.