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Kunshan vs Qingdao Jonoon — League One 2018

Kunshan
Kunshan
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Qingdao Jonoon
Qingdao Jonoon
6/18/2022League OneLeague One · Round 3Jiangning Football Training Base Field No.2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kunshan28%
×Draw25%
Qingdao Jonoon47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kunshan
1.18
Qingdao Jonoon
1.60

Qingdao Jonoon creates 36% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 17 away

creates per match

Kunshan
1.76
Qingdao Jonoon
2.41

allows per match

Kunshan
0.78
Qingdao Jonoon
0.59

finishing

Kunshan+0.00on par
Qingdao Jonoon+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kunshan ↓

Qingdao Jonoon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kunshan or draw
53%
Kunshan or Qingdao Jonoon
75%
Draw or Qingdao Jonoon
72%

Winning margin

Kunshan wins by 2+
11%
Qingdao Jonoon wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Kunshan 1+ goals
69%
Kunshan 2+ goals
33%
Kunshan 3+ goals
12%
Qingdao Jonoon 1+ goals
80%
Qingdao Jonoon 2+ goals
47%
Qingdao Jonoon 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Kunshan (draw refunded)
37%
Qingdao Jonoon (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kunshan at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.78 · 41 matches

Qingdao Jonoon away — creates 2.41, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kunshan attack 1.76 + Qingdao Jonoon defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.18

Qingdao Jonoon attack 2.41 + Kunshan defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kunshan scores more
28%
level
25%
Qingdao Jonoon scores more
47%

Qingdao Jonoon at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Qingdao Jonoon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kunshan vs Qingdao Jonoon

Kunshan beat Qingdao Jonoon 1-0 in League One on June 18, 2022.

The match was played at Jiangning Football Training Base Field No.2 in Nanjing.