Qingdao Jonoon 1–1 Beijing Guoan: Result & Stats

Qingdao Jonoon

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Beijing Guoan

Liu Junshuai 90'

Lin Liangming 53'

5/17/2025

Super League · Round 13Qingdao Youth Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Qingdao Jonoon35%

×Draw24%

Beijing Guoan41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Qingdao JonoonExpected goals in this matchBeijing Guoan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.59

Qingdao Jonoon

1.46

Beijing Guoan

1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 32 away

1.44

creates per match

1.56

1.63

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Qingdao Jonoon

1.44

Beijing Guoan

1.56

allows per match

Qingdao Jonoon

1.63

Beijing Guoan

1.48

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

Qingdao Jonoon-0.11scores less

Beijing Guoan+0.35scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Jonoon ↓

Beijing Guoan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Qingdao Jonoon or draw

59%

Qingdao Jonoon or Beijing Guoan

76%

Draw or Beijing Guoan

65%

Winning margin

Qingdao Jonoon wins by 2+

16%

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Qingdao Jonoon 1+ goals

77%

Qingdao Jonoon 2+ goals

43%

Qingdao Jonoon 3+ goals

18%

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals

80%

Beijing Guoan 2+ goals

47%

Beijing Guoan 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Jonoon (draw refunded)

46%

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Jonoon at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

Beijing Guoan away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.48 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.44 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.46

Beijing Guoan attack 1.56 + Qingdao Jonoon defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Qingdao Jonoon scores more

35%

level

24%

Beijing Guoan scores more

41%

Beijing Guoan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Lin Liangming

Beijing Guoan · M

7.9

Match Events

30'

Jia Feifan← Wei Suowei

32'

45+1'

49'

53'

58'

Sha Yibo← Jin Yangyang

58'

Luo Senwen← Jin Yonghao

69'

Yongjing Cao

70'

Zhang Yuan← Serginho

70'

Zhang Yuning← Wang Ziming

80'

Che Shiwei← Song Long

80'

Wong Ho-Chun Anson← Feng Boyuan

84'

U. Spajic← Cao Yongjing

84'

Zhang Xizhe← F. Abreu

90+6'

Dawhan

90+4'

Uroš Spajić

90'

Li Lei← Lin Liangming

90'

Liu Junshuai↳ N. Radmanovac

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

QingdaoBeijing

Overview

33%Possession67%

11Total Shots13

0.64Expected Goals (xG)1.78

1Corners5

16Fouls19

Shots

11Total Shots13

3On Target4

3Off Target5

5Blocked4

5Inside Box11

6Outside Box2

Passing

33%Possession67%

295Total Passes612

200Accurate Passes516

68%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls19

1Yellow Cards5

4Offsides3