Beijing Guoan 6–0 Qingdao Jonoon: Result & Stats

Beijing Guoan

FT

6 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Qingdao Jonoon

Liu Jiashen 89' (OG)

Lin Liangming 66', 47'

Cao Yongjing 60', 18'

Fábio Abreu 26'

10/19/2024

Super League · Round 28Workers' Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Beijing Guoan60%

×Draw21%

Qingdao Jonoon20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beijing GuoanExpected goals in this matchQingdao Jonoon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.13

Beijing Guoan

2.13

Qingdao Jonoon

1.13

Beijing Guoan creates 88% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 30 away

2.08

creates per match

1.02

1.23

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Beijing Guoan

2.08

Qingdao Jonoon

1.02

allows per match

Beijing Guoan

1.23

Qingdao Jonoon

2.19

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Beijing Guoan+0.20scores more

Qingdao Jonoon-0.15scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Guoan ↓

Qingdao Jonoon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Beijing Guoan or draw

80%

Beijing Guoan or Qingdao Jonoon

79%

Draw or Qingdao Jonoon

40%

Winning margin

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+

37%

Qingdao Jonoon wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals

88%

Beijing Guoan 2+ goals

63%

Beijing Guoan 3+ goals

35%

Qingdao Jonoon 1+ goals

68%

Qingdao Jonoon 2+ goals

31%

Qingdao Jonoon 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)

75%

Qingdao Jonoon (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Guoan at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.23 · 29 matches

Qingdao Jonoon away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.19 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Guoan attack 2.08 + Qingdao Jonoon defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.13

Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.02 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Beijing Guoan scores more

60%

level

21%

Qingdao Jonoon scores more

20%

Beijing Guoan at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

Fábio Abreu

Beijing Guoan · F

10.0

Match Events

12'

Zhang Chengdong← M. Traoré

18'

Cao Yongjing↳ Fábio Abreu

26'

Fábio Abreu

47'

Lin Liangming↳ Fábio Abreu

60'

Cao Yongjing↳ Fábio Abreu

61'

Yongjing CaoGoal confirmed

64'

Liu Jiashen← N. Radmanovac

64'

Song Long← Diego Lopes

66'

Lin Liangming↳ Fábio Abreu

67'

Yang Liyu← Fábio Abreu

67'

Zhang Xizhe← Chi Zhongguo

70'

Chen Chunxin← Wang Zihao

77'

Yu Dabao← Lin Liangming

77'

Fan Shuangjie← Li Lei

80'

Song Wenjie← M. Boakye

81'

Zhao Yi← E. Sarić

89'

Liu JiashenOwn goal

90+3'

Liyu Yang

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BeijingQingdao

Overview

61%Possession39%

16Total Shots19

2.34Expected Goals (xG)1.86

2Corners5

8Fouls9

Shots

16Total Shots19

8On Target4

3Off Target9

5Blocked6

13Inside Box12

3Outside Box7

Passing

61%Possession39%

620Total Passes386

562Accurate Passes337

91%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls9

1Yellow Cards0

3Offsides1