Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Baxy — League One 2018

Qingdao Jonoon
Qingdao Jonoon
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Beijing Baxy
Beijing Baxy
9/28/2022League OneLeague One · Round 24Tangshan Nanhu City Football Training Base Field No.1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Qingdao Jonoon58%
×Draw23%
Beijing Baxy19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qingdao Jonoon
1.84
Beijing Baxy
0.95

Qingdao Jonoon creates 94% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 71 away

creates per match

Qingdao Jonoon
2.12
Beijing Baxy
1.07

allows per match

Qingdao Jonoon
0.82
Beijing Baxy
1.56

finishing

Qingdao Jonoon+0.00on par
Beijing Baxy+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Jonoon ↓

Beijing Baxy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Qingdao Jonoon or draw
81%
Qingdao Jonoon or Beijing Baxy
77%
Draw or Beijing Baxy
42%

Winning margin

Qingdao Jonoon wins by 2+
34%
Beijing Baxy wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Qingdao Jonoon 1+ goals
84%
Qingdao Jonoon 2+ goals
55%
Qingdao Jonoon 3+ goals
28%
Beijing Baxy 1+ goals
61%
Beijing Baxy 2+ goals
25%
Beijing Baxy 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Jonoon (draw refunded)
75%
Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Jonoon at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Beijing Baxy away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.56 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Jonoon attack 2.12 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.84

Beijing Baxy attack 1.07 + Qingdao Jonoon defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Qingdao Jonoon scores more
58%
level
23%
Beijing Baxy scores more
19%

Qingdao Jonoon at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Qingdao Jonoon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Qingdao Jonoon 3 – 0 Beijing Baxy

Qingdao Jonoon beat Beijing Baxy 3-0 in League One on September 28, 2022.

The match was played at Tangshan Nanhu City Football Training Base Field No.1 in Tangshan.