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Beijing Baxy vs Qingdao Jonoon — League One 2018

Beijing Baxy
Beijing Baxy
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Qingdao Jonoon
Qingdao Jonoon
9/12/2022League OneLeague One · Round 20Tangshan Nanhu City Football Training Base Field No.1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Beijing Baxy21%
×Draw23%
Qingdao Jonoon56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Baxy
0.99
Qingdao Jonoon
1.78

Qingdao Jonoon creates 80% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 17 away

creates per match

Beijing Baxy
1.39
Qingdao Jonoon
2.41

allows per match

Beijing Baxy
1.15
Qingdao Jonoon
0.59

finishing

Beijing Baxy+0.00on par
Qingdao Jonoon+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Baxy ↓

Qingdao Jonoon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Beijing Baxy or draw
44%
Beijing Baxy or Qingdao Jonoon
77%
Draw or Qingdao Jonoon
79%

Winning margin

Beijing Baxy wins by 2+
7%
Qingdao Jonoon wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Beijing Baxy 1+ goals
63%
Beijing Baxy 2+ goals
26%
Beijing Baxy 3+ goals
8%
Qingdao Jonoon 1+ goals
83%
Qingdao Jonoon 2+ goals
53%
Qingdao Jonoon 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)
27%
Qingdao Jonoon (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Baxy at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.15 · 72 matches

Qingdao Jonoon away — creates 2.41, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Baxy attack 1.39 + Qingdao Jonoon defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.99

Qingdao Jonoon attack 2.41 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Beijing Baxy scores more
21%
level
23%
Qingdao Jonoon scores more
56%

Qingdao Jonoon at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Qingdao Jonoon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Beijing Baxy 0–2 Qingdao Jonoon

Qingdao Jonoon beat Beijing Baxy 2-0 in League One on September 12, 2022.

The match was played at Tangshan Nanhu City Football Training Base Field No.1 in Tangshan.