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Qingdao Huanghai vs Shanghai Shenxin — League One 2018

Qingdao Huanghai
Qingdao Huanghai
FT
1 – 0
Shanghai Shenxin
Shanghai Shenxin
9/16/2017League OneLeague One · Round 26GuoXin Stadium (Qingdao)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Qingdao Huanghai63%
×Draw20%
Shanghai Shenxin17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qingdao Huanghai
2.16
Shanghai Shenxin
1.04

Qingdao Huanghai creates 108% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 31 away

creates per match

Qingdao Huanghai
2.15
Shanghai Shenxin
1.03

allows per match

Qingdao Huanghai
1.06
Shanghai Shenxin
2.16

finishing

Qingdao Huanghai+0.00on par
Shanghai Shenxin+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Huanghai ↓

Shanghai Shenxin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Qingdao Huanghai or draw
83%
Qingdao Huanghai or Shanghai Shenxin
80%
Draw or Shanghai Shenxin
37%

Winning margin

Qingdao Huanghai wins by 2+
39%
Shanghai Shenxin wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Qingdao Huanghai 1+ goals
88%
Qingdao Huanghai 2+ goals
63%
Qingdao Huanghai 3+ goals
36%
Shanghai Shenxin 1+ goals
65%
Shanghai Shenxin 2+ goals
28%
Shanghai Shenxin 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Huanghai (draw refunded)
78%
Shanghai Shenxin (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Huanghai at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.06 · 34 matches

Shanghai Shenxin away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.16 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Huanghai attack 2.15 + Shanghai Shenxin defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.16

Shanghai Shenxin attack 1.03 + Qingdao Huanghai defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Qingdao Huanghai scores more
63%
level
20%
Shanghai Shenxin scores more
17%

Qingdao Huanghai at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Qingdao Huanghai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Qingdao Huanghai 1–0 Shanghai Shenxin

Qingdao Huanghai beat Shanghai Shenxin 1-0 in League One on September 16, 2017.

The match was played at GuoXin Stadium (Qingdao).