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Shanghai Shenxin vs Qingdao Huanghai — League One 2018

Shanghai Shenxin
Shanghai Shenxin
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Qingdao Huanghai
Qingdao Huanghai
3/17/2018League OneLeague One · Round 2Jinshan Soccer Stadium (Shanghai)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shanghai Shenxin28%
×Draw22%
Qingdao Huanghai50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Shenxin
1.39
Qingdao Huanghai
1.94

Qingdao Huanghai creates 40% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 31 away

creates per match

Shanghai Shenxin
1.17
Qingdao Huanghai
1.84

allows per match

Shanghai Shenxin
2.03
Qingdao Huanghai
1.61

finishing

Shanghai Shenxin+0.00on par
Qingdao Huanghai+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenxin ↓

Qingdao Huanghai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenxin or draw
50%
Shanghai Shenxin or Qingdao Huanghai
78%
Draw or Qingdao Huanghai
72%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenxin wins by 2+
12%
Qingdao Huanghai wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenxin 1+ goals
75%
Shanghai Shenxin 2+ goals
40%
Shanghai Shenxin 3+ goals
16%
Qingdao Huanghai 1+ goals
86%
Qingdao Huanghai 2+ goals
58%
Qingdao Huanghai 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenxin (draw refunded)
35%
Qingdao Huanghai (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenxin at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

Qingdao Huanghai away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenxin attack 1.17 + Qingdao Huanghai defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.39

Qingdao Huanghai attack 1.84 + Shanghai Shenxin defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Shanghai Shenxin scores more
28%
level
22%
Qingdao Huanghai scores more
50%

Qingdao Huanghai at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Qingdao Huanghai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Shanghai Shenxin 3–3 Qingdao Huanghai

Shanghai Shenxin and Qingdao Huanghai drew 3-3 in League One on March 17, 2018.

The match was played at Jinshan Soccer Stadium (Shanghai).