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Qingdao Huanghai vs Nantong Zhiyun — League One 2018

Qingdao Huanghai
Qingdao Huanghai
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Nantong Zhiyun
Nantong Zhiyun
11/2/2019League OneLeague One · Round 30GuoXin Stadium (Qingdao)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Qingdao Huanghai45%
×Draw25%
Nantong Zhiyun30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qingdao Huanghai
1.55
Nantong Zhiyun
1.22

Qingdao Huanghai creates 27% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 77 away

creates per match

Qingdao Huanghai
2.15
Nantong Zhiyun
1.38

allows per match

Qingdao Huanghai
1.06
Nantong Zhiyun
0.96

finishing

Qingdao Huanghai+0.00on par
Nantong Zhiyun+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Huanghai ↓

Nantong Zhiyun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Qingdao Huanghai or draw
70%
Qingdao Huanghai or Nantong Zhiyun
75%
Draw or Nantong Zhiyun
55%

Winning margin

Qingdao Huanghai wins by 2+
23%
Nantong Zhiyun wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Qingdao Huanghai 1+ goals
79%
Qingdao Huanghai 2+ goals
46%
Qingdao Huanghai 3+ goals
20%
Nantong Zhiyun 1+ goals
70%
Nantong Zhiyun 2+ goals
34%
Nantong Zhiyun 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Huanghai (draw refunded)
60%
Nantong Zhiyun (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Huanghai at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.06 · 34 matches

Nantong Zhiyun away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.96 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Huanghai attack 2.15 + Nantong Zhiyun defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.55

Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.38 + Qingdao Huanghai defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Qingdao Huanghai scores more
45%
level
25%
Nantong Zhiyun scores more
30%

Qingdao Huanghai at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Qingdao Huanghai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Qingdao Huanghai vs Nantong Zhiyun

Nantong Zhiyun beat Qingdao Huanghai 2-1 in League One on November 2, 2019.

The match was played at GuoXin Stadium (Qingdao).