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Nantong Zhiyun vs Qingdao Huanghai — League One 2018

Nantong Zhiyun
Nantong Zhiyun
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Qingdao Huanghai
Qingdao Huanghai
6/29/2019League OneLeague One · Round 15Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Nantong Zhiyun43%
×Draw24%
Qingdao Huanghai33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nantong Zhiyun
1.60
Qingdao Huanghai
1.38

Nantong Zhiyun creates 16% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 31 away

creates per match

Nantong Zhiyun
1.58
Qingdao Huanghai
1.84

allows per match

Nantong Zhiyun
0.91
Qingdao Huanghai
1.61

finishing

Nantong Zhiyun+0.00on par
Qingdao Huanghai+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nantong Zhiyun ↓

Qingdao Huanghai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Nantong Zhiyun or draw
67%
Nantong Zhiyun or Qingdao Huanghai
76%
Draw or Qingdao Huanghai
57%

Winning margin

Nantong Zhiyun wins by 2+
22%
Qingdao Huanghai wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Nantong Zhiyun 1+ goals
80%
Nantong Zhiyun 2+ goals
47%
Nantong Zhiyun 3+ goals
22%
Qingdao Huanghai 1+ goals
75%
Qingdao Huanghai 2+ goals
40%
Qingdao Huanghai 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Nantong Zhiyun (draw refunded)
56%
Qingdao Huanghai (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nantong Zhiyun at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.91 · 79 matches

Qingdao Huanghai away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.58 + Qingdao Huanghai defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.60

Qingdao Huanghai attack 1.84 + Nantong Zhiyun defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nantong Zhiyun scores more
43%
level
24%
Qingdao Huanghai scores more
33%

Nantong Zhiyun at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nantong Zhiyun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nantong Zhiyun vs Qingdao Huanghai

Nantong Zhiyun and Qingdao Huanghai drew 1-1 in League One on June 29, 2019.

The match was played at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Rugao.