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Qingdao Huanghai vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring — League One 2018

Qingdao Huanghai
Qingdao Huanghai
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
4/6/2019League OneLeague One · Round 4Conson Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Qingdao Huanghai53%
×Draw23%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qingdao Huanghai
1.77
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.09

Qingdao Huanghai creates 62% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 124 away

creates per match

Qingdao Huanghai
2.15
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.12

allows per match

Qingdao Huanghai
1.06
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.40

finishing

Qingdao Huanghai+0.00on par
Heilongjiang Lava Spring+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Huanghai ↓

Heilongjiang Lava Spring →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Qingdao Huanghai or draw
77%
Qingdao Huanghai or Heilongjiang Lava Spring
77%
Draw or Heilongjiang Lava Spring
47%

Winning margin

Qingdao Huanghai wins by 2+
30%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Qingdao Huanghai 1+ goals
83%
Qingdao Huanghai 2+ goals
53%
Qingdao Huanghai 3+ goals
26%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 1+ goals
66%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2+ goals
30%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Huanghai (draw refunded)
69%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Huanghai at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.06 · 34 matches

Heilongjiang Lava Spring away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.40 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Huanghai attack 2.15 + Heilongjiang Lava Spring defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.77

Heilongjiang Lava Spring attack 1.12 + Qingdao Huanghai defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Qingdao Huanghai scores more
53%
level
23%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring scores more
23%

Qingdao Huanghai at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Qingdao Huanghai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Qingdao Huanghai vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring

Qingdao Huanghai beat Heilongjiang Lava Spring 3-0 in League One on April 6, 2019.

The match was played at Conson Stadium in Qingdao.