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Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Qingdao Huanghai — League One 2018

Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Qingdao Huanghai
Qingdao Huanghai
7/27/2019League OneLeague One · Round 19Harbin International Conference Exhibition and Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Heilongjiang Lava Spring39%
×Draw24%
Qingdao Huanghai37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.52
Qingdao Huanghai
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 121 home / 28 away

creates per match

Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.47
Qingdao Huanghai
1.89

allows per match

Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.08
Qingdao Huanghai
1.57

finishing

Heilongjiang Lava Spring+0.00on par
Qingdao Huanghai+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heilongjiang Lava Spring ↓

Qingdao Huanghai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Heilongjiang Lava Spring or draw
63%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring or Qingdao Huanghai
76%
Draw or Qingdao Huanghai
61%

Winning margin

Heilongjiang Lava Spring wins by 2+
19%
Qingdao Huanghai wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Heilongjiang Lava Spring 1+ goals
78%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2+ goals
45%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 3+ goals
20%
Qingdao Huanghai 1+ goals
77%
Qingdao Huanghai 2+ goals
43%
Qingdao Huanghai 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Heilongjiang Lava Spring (draw refunded)
51%
Qingdao Huanghai (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heilongjiang Lava Spring at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.08 · 121 matches

Qingdao Huanghai away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heilongjiang Lava Spring attack 1.47 + Qingdao Huanghai defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.52

Qingdao Huanghai attack 1.89 + Heilongjiang Lava Spring defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Heilongjiang Lava Spring scores more
39%
level
24%
Qingdao Huanghai scores more
37%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Heilongjiang Lava Spring will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Heilongjiang Lava Spring 1 – 0 Qingdao Huanghai

Heilongjiang Lava Spring beat Qingdao Huanghai 1-0 in League One on July 27, 2019.

The match was played at Harbin International Conference Exhibition and Sports Center in Harbin.