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Qingdao Huanghai vs Chongqing Lifan — Super League 2018

Qingdao Huanghai
Qingdao Huanghai
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Chongqing Lifan
Chongqing Lifan
9/16/2020Super LeagueSuper League · Round 11Kunshan Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Qingdao Huanghai29%
×Draw24%
Chongqing Lifan47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qingdao Huanghai
1.25
Chongqing Lifan
1.65

Chongqing Lifan creates 32% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 50 away

creates per match

Qingdao Huanghai
0.71
Chongqing Lifan
1.24

allows per match

Qingdao Huanghai
2.05
Chongqing Lifan
1.78

finishing

Qingdao Huanghai+0.00on par
Chongqing Lifan+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Huanghai ↓

Chongqing Lifan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Qingdao Huanghai or draw
53%
Qingdao Huanghai or Chongqing Lifan
76%
Draw or Chongqing Lifan
71%

Winning margin

Qingdao Huanghai wins by 2+
12%
Chongqing Lifan wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Qingdao Huanghai 1+ goals
71%
Qingdao Huanghai 2+ goals
36%
Qingdao Huanghai 3+ goals
13%
Chongqing Lifan 1+ goals
81%
Chongqing Lifan 2+ goals
49%
Chongqing Lifan 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Huanghai (draw refunded)
38%
Chongqing Lifan (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Huanghai at home — creates 0.71, concedes 2.05 · 21 matches

Chongqing Lifan away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.78 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.71 + Chongqing Lifan defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.25

Chongqing Lifan attack 1.24 + Qingdao Huanghai defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Qingdao Huanghai scores more
29%
level
24%
Chongqing Lifan scores more
47%

Chongqing Lifan at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Chongqing Lifan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Qingdao Huanghai vs Chongqing Lifan

Chongqing Lifan beat Qingdao Huanghai 3-0 in Super League on September 16, 2020.

The match was played at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium in Kunshan.