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Chongqing Lifan vs Qingdao Huanghai — Super League 2018

Chongqing Lifan
Chongqing Lifan
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Qingdao Huanghai
Qingdao Huanghai
8/5/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 12Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Chongqing Lifan52%
×Draw25%
Qingdao Huanghai24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chongqing Lifan
1.65
Qingdao Huanghai
1.04

Chongqing Lifan creates 59% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 22 away

creates per match

Chongqing Lifan
1.26
Qingdao Huanghai
0.73

allows per match

Chongqing Lifan
1.34
Qingdao Huanghai
2.05

finishing

Chongqing Lifan+0.00on par
Qingdao Huanghai+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chongqing Lifan ↓

Qingdao Huanghai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Chongqing Lifan or draw
76%
Chongqing Lifan or Qingdao Huanghai
75%
Draw or Qingdao Huanghai
48%

Winning margin

Chongqing Lifan wins by 2+
28%
Qingdao Huanghai wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chongqing Lifan 1+ goals
81%
Chongqing Lifan 2+ goals
49%
Chongqing Lifan 3+ goals
23%
Qingdao Huanghai 1+ goals
65%
Qingdao Huanghai 2+ goals
28%
Qingdao Huanghai 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Chongqing Lifan (draw refunded)
68%
Qingdao Huanghai (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chongqing Lifan at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.34 · 50 matches

Qingdao Huanghai away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chongqing Lifan attack 1.26 + Qingdao Huanghai defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.65

Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.73 + Chongqing Lifan defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Chongqing Lifan scores more
52%
level
25%
Qingdao Huanghai scores more
24%

Chongqing Lifan at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Chongqing Lifan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chongqing Lifan vs Qingdao Huanghai

Chongqing Lifan beat Qingdao Huanghai 1-0 in Super League on August 5, 2021.

The match was played at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium in Guangzhou.