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Qingdao Huanghai vs Changchun Yatai — League One 2018

Qingdao Huanghai
Qingdao Huanghai
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Changchun Yatai
Changchun Yatai
5/26/2019League OneLeague One · Round 11Conson Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Qingdao Huanghai44%
×Draw23%
Changchun Yatai33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qingdao Huanghai
1.73
Changchun Yatai
1.48

Qingdao Huanghai creates 17% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 29 away

creates per match

Qingdao Huanghai
2.15
Changchun Yatai
1.90

allows per match

Qingdao Huanghai
1.06
Changchun Yatai
1.31

finishing

Qingdao Huanghai+0.00on par
Changchun Yatai+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Huanghai ↓

Changchun Yatai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Qingdao Huanghai or draw
67%
Qingdao Huanghai or Changchun Yatai
77%
Draw or Changchun Yatai
56%

Winning margin

Qingdao Huanghai wins by 2+
23%
Changchun Yatai wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Qingdao Huanghai 1+ goals
82%
Qingdao Huanghai 2+ goals
52%
Qingdao Huanghai 3+ goals
25%
Changchun Yatai 1+ goals
77%
Changchun Yatai 2+ goals
43%
Changchun Yatai 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Huanghai (draw refunded)
57%
Changchun Yatai (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Huanghai at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.06 · 34 matches

Changchun Yatai away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Huanghai attack 2.15 + Changchun Yatai defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.73

Changchun Yatai attack 1.90 + Qingdao Huanghai defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Qingdao Huanghai scores more
44%
level
23%
Changchun Yatai scores more
33%

Qingdao Huanghai at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Qingdao Huanghai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Qingdao Huanghai vs Changchun Yatai

Changchun Yatai beat Qingdao Huanghai 3-2 in League One on May 26, 2019.

The match was played at Conson Stadium in Qingdao.