Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Huanghai — League One 2018

Changchun Yatai
Changchun Yatai
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Qingdao Huanghai
Qingdao Huanghai
9/22/2019League OneLeague One · Round 26Changchun's People Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Changchun Yatai40%
×Draw24%
Qingdao Huanghai36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Changchun Yatai
1.58
Qingdao Huanghai
1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 31 away

creates per match

Changchun Yatai
1.55
Qingdao Huanghai
1.84

allows per match

Changchun Yatai
1.14
Qingdao Huanghai
1.61

finishing

Changchun Yatai+0.00on par
Qingdao Huanghai+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Changchun Yatai ↓

Qingdao Huanghai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Changchun Yatai or draw
64%
Changchun Yatai or Qingdao Huanghai
76%
Draw or Qingdao Huanghai
60%

Winning margin

Changchun Yatai wins by 2+
20%
Qingdao Huanghai wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Changchun Yatai 1+ goals
79%
Changchun Yatai 2+ goals
47%
Changchun Yatai 3+ goals
21%
Qingdao Huanghai 1+ goals
77%
Qingdao Huanghai 2+ goals
44%
Qingdao Huanghai 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Changchun Yatai (draw refunded)
53%
Qingdao Huanghai (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Changchun Yatai at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.14 · 29 matches

Qingdao Huanghai away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Changchun Yatai attack 1.55 + Qingdao Huanghai defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.58

Qingdao Huanghai attack 1.84 + Changchun Yatai defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Changchun Yatai scores more
40%
level
24%
Qingdao Huanghai scores more
36%

Changchun Yatai at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Changchun Yatai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Changchun Yatai 1–1 Qingdao Huanghai

Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Huanghai drew 1-1 in League One on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Changchun's People Stadium in Changchun.