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Qingdao Huanghai vs Beijing Guoan — Super League 2018

Qingdao Huanghai
Qingdao Huanghai
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 3
Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan
8/16/2020Super LeagueSuper League · Round 5Kunshan Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Qingdao Huanghai22%
×Draw23%
Beijing Guoan55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qingdao Huanghai
1.06
Beijing Guoan
1.82

Beijing Guoan creates 72% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 121 away

creates per match

Qingdao Huanghai
0.71
Beijing Guoan
1.59

allows per match

Qingdao Huanghai
2.05
Beijing Guoan
1.42

finishing

Qingdao Huanghai+0.00on par
Beijing Guoan+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Huanghai ↓

Beijing Guoan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Qingdao Huanghai or draw
45%
Qingdao Huanghai or Beijing Guoan
77%
Draw or Beijing Guoan
78%

Winning margin

Qingdao Huanghai wins by 2+
8%
Beijing Guoan wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Qingdao Huanghai 1+ goals
65%
Qingdao Huanghai 2+ goals
29%
Qingdao Huanghai 3+ goals
9%
Beijing Guoan 1+ goals
84%
Beijing Guoan 2+ goals
54%
Beijing Guoan 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Huanghai (draw refunded)
29%
Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Huanghai at home — creates 0.71, concedes 2.05 · 21 matches

Beijing Guoan away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.42 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.71 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.06

Beijing Guoan attack 1.59 + Qingdao Huanghai defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Qingdao Huanghai scores more
22%
level
23%
Beijing Guoan scores more
55%

Beijing Guoan at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Qingdao Huanghai 3–3 Beijing Guoan

Qingdao Huanghai and Beijing Guoan drew 3-3 in Super League on August 16, 2020.

The match was played at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium in Kunshan.