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Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Huanghai — Super League 2018

Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Qingdao Huanghai
Qingdao Huanghai
9/22/2020Super LeagueSuper League · Round 12Kunshan Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Beijing Guoan65%
×Draw20%
Qingdao Huanghai15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Guoan
2.15
Qingdao Huanghai
0.94

Beijing Guoan creates 129% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 22 away

creates per match

Beijing Guoan
2.25
Qingdao Huanghai
0.73

allows per match

Beijing Guoan
1.16
Qingdao Huanghai
2.05

finishing

Beijing Guoan+0.00on par
Qingdao Huanghai+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Guoan ↓

Qingdao Huanghai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Beijing Guoan or draw
85%
Beijing Guoan or Qingdao Huanghai
80%
Draw or Qingdao Huanghai
35%

Winning margin

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+
41%
Qingdao Huanghai wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals
88%
Beijing Guoan 2+ goals
63%
Beijing Guoan 3+ goals
36%
Qingdao Huanghai 1+ goals
61%
Qingdao Huanghai 2+ goals
24%
Qingdao Huanghai 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)
81%
Qingdao Huanghai (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Guoan at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.16 · 122 matches

Qingdao Huanghai away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Guoan attack 2.25 + Qingdao Huanghai defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.15

Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.73 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Beijing Guoan scores more
65%
level
20%
Qingdao Huanghai scores more
15%

Beijing Guoan at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Huanghai

Beijing Guoan beat Qingdao Huanghai 5-1 in Super League on September 22, 2020.

The match was played at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium in Kunshan.