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Qashqai Shiraz vs Niroye Zamini — Azadegan League 2018

Qashqai Shiraz
Qashqai Shiraz
FT
1 – 1
Niroye Zamini
Niroye Zamini
10/24/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 9Hafezieh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Qashqai Shiraz39%
×Draw33%
Niroye Zamini28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qashqai Shiraz
1.00
Niroye Zamini
0.79

Qashqai Shiraz creates 27% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 51 away

creates per match

Qashqai Shiraz
0.93
Niroye Zamini
0.76

allows per match

Qashqai Shiraz
0.81
Niroye Zamini
1.06

finishing

Qashqai Shiraz+0.00on par
Niroye Zamini+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qashqai Shiraz ↓

Niroye Zamini →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Qashqai Shiraz or draw
72%
Qashqai Shiraz or Niroye Zamini
67%
Draw or Niroye Zamini
61%

Winning margin

Qashqai Shiraz wins by 2+
15%
Niroye Zamini wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Qashqai Shiraz 1+ goals
63%
Qashqai Shiraz 2+ goals
26%
Qashqai Shiraz 3+ goals
8%
Niroye Zamini 1+ goals
55%
Niroye Zamini 2+ goals
19%
Niroye Zamini 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Qashqai Shiraz (draw refunded)
59%
Niroye Zamini (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qashqai Shiraz at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.81 · 68 matches

Niroye Zamini away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.06 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qashqai Shiraz attack 0.93 + Niroye Zamini defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Niroye Zamini attack 0.76 + Qashqai Shiraz defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Qashqai Shiraz scores more
39%
level
33%
Niroye Zamini scores more
28%

Qashqai Shiraz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Qashqai Shiraz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Qashqai Shiraz 1–1 Niroye Zamini

Qashqai Shiraz and Niroye Zamini drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on October 24, 2019.

The match was played at Hafezieh Stadium in Shiraz.