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Niroye Zamini vs Qashqai Shiraz — Azadegan League 2018

Niroye Zamini
Niroye Zamini
FT
0 – 0
Qashqai Shiraz
Qashqai Shiraz
2/28/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 26Ghadir Tehran Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Niroye Zamini39%
×Draw32%
Qashqai Shiraz30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niroye Zamini
1.04
Qashqai Shiraz
0.87

Niroye Zamini creates 20% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 69 away

creates per match

Niroye Zamini
0.76
Qashqai Shiraz
0.84

allows per match

Niroye Zamini
0.90
Qashqai Shiraz
1.33

finishing

Niroye Zamini+0.00on par
Qashqai Shiraz+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niroye Zamini ↓

Qashqai Shiraz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Niroye Zamini or draw
70%
Niroye Zamini or Qashqai Shiraz
68%
Draw or Qashqai Shiraz
61%

Winning margin

Niroye Zamini wins by 2+
15%
Qashqai Shiraz wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Niroye Zamini 1+ goals
65%
Niroye Zamini 2+ goals
28%
Niroye Zamini 3+ goals
9%
Qashqai Shiraz 1+ goals
58%
Qashqai Shiraz 2+ goals
22%
Qashqai Shiraz 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Niroye Zamini (draw refunded)
57%
Qashqai Shiraz (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niroye Zamini at home — creates 0.76, concedes 0.90 · 50 matches

Qashqai Shiraz away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.33 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niroye Zamini attack 0.76 + Qashqai Shiraz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Qashqai Shiraz attack 0.84 + Niroye Zamini defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Niroye Zamini scores more
39%
level
32%
Qashqai Shiraz scores more
30%

Niroye Zamini at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Niroye Zamini will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Niroye Zamini vs Qashqai Shiraz

Niroye Zamini and Qashqai Shiraz drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on February 28, 2020.

The match was played at Ghadir Tehran Stadium in Tehran.