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Qashqai Shiraz vs Khooneh Be Khooneh — Azadegan League 2018

Qashqai Shiraz
Qashqai Shiraz
FT
2 – 0
Khooneh Be Khooneh
Khooneh Be Khooneh
12/1/2018Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 15Grand Shiraz Stadium (Shīrāz (Shiraz))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Qashqai Shiraz46%
×Draw32%
Khooneh Be Khooneh21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qashqai Shiraz
1.09
Khooneh Be Khooneh
0.63

Qashqai Shiraz creates 73% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 16 away

creates per match

Qashqai Shiraz
0.93
Khooneh Be Khooneh
0.44

allows per match

Qashqai Shiraz
0.81
Khooneh Be Khooneh
1.25

finishing

Qashqai Shiraz+0.00on par
Khooneh Be Khooneh+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qashqai Shiraz ↓

Khooneh Be Khooneh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Qashqai Shiraz or draw
79%
Qashqai Shiraz or Khooneh Be Khooneh
68%
Draw or Khooneh Be Khooneh
54%

Winning margin

Qashqai Shiraz wins by 2+
19%
Khooneh Be Khooneh wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Qashqai Shiraz 1+ goals
66%
Qashqai Shiraz 2+ goals
30%
Qashqai Shiraz 3+ goals
10%
Khooneh Be Khooneh 1+ goals
47%
Khooneh Be Khooneh 2+ goals
13%
Khooneh Be Khooneh 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Qashqai Shiraz (draw refunded)
69%
Khooneh Be Khooneh (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qashqai Shiraz at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.81 · 68 matches

Khooneh Be Khooneh away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qashqai Shiraz attack 0.93 + Khooneh Be Khooneh defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.09

Khooneh Be Khooneh attack 0.44 + Qashqai Shiraz defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Qashqai Shiraz scores more
46%
level
32%
Khooneh Be Khooneh scores more
21%

Qashqai Shiraz at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Qashqai Shiraz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Qashqai Shiraz 2–0 Khooneh Be Khooneh

Qashqai Shiraz beat Khooneh Be Khooneh 2-0 in Azadegan League on December 1, 2018.

The match was played at Grand Shiraz Stadium (Shīrāz (Shiraz)).