Khooneh Be Khooneh 1–0 Qashqai Shiraz

Khooneh Be Khooneh

FT

1 – 0

Qashqai Shiraz

4/16/2019

Azadegan League · Round 32Shohada Stadium (Babol)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Khooneh Be Khooneh45%

×Draw30%

Qashqai Shiraz25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khooneh Be KhoonehExpected goals in this matchQashqai Shiraz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.78

Khooneh Be Khooneh

1.17

Qashqai Shiraz

0.78

Khooneh Be Khooneh creates 50% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 69 away

1.00

creates per match

0.84

0.73

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Khooneh Be Khooneh

1.00

Qashqai Shiraz

0.84

allows per match

Khooneh Be Khooneh

0.73

Qashqai Shiraz

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khooneh Be Khooneh+0.00on par

Qashqai Shiraz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khooneh Be Khooneh ↓

Qashqai Shiraz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Khooneh Be Khooneh or draw

75%

Khooneh Be Khooneh or Qashqai Shiraz

70%

Draw or Qashqai Shiraz

55%

Winning margin

Khooneh Be Khooneh wins by 2+

19%

Qashqai Shiraz wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Khooneh Be Khooneh 1+ goals

69%

Khooneh Be Khooneh 2+ goals

33%

Khooneh Be Khooneh 3+ goals

11%

Qashqai Shiraz 1+ goals

54%

Qashqai Shiraz 2+ goals

18%

Qashqai Shiraz 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Khooneh Be Khooneh (draw refunded)

65%

Qashqai Shiraz (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khooneh Be Khooneh at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Qashqai Shiraz away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.33 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khooneh Be Khooneh attack 1.00 + Qashqai Shiraz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Qashqai Shiraz attack 0.84 + Khooneh Be Khooneh defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Khooneh Be Khooneh scores more

45%

level

30%

Qashqai Shiraz scores more

25%

Khooneh Be Khooneh at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Khooneh Be Khooneh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff