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Qashqai Shiraz vs Esteghlal Mollasani — Azadegan League 2018

Qashqai Shiraz
Qashqai Shiraz
FT
3 – 1
Esteghlal Mollasani
Esteghlal Mollasani
2/14/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 14Grand Shiraz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Qashqai Shiraz41%
×Draw31%
Esteghlal Mollasani27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qashqai Shiraz
1.09
Esteghlal Mollasani
0.83

Qashqai Shiraz creates 31% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 68 away

creates per match

Qashqai Shiraz
0.87
Esteghlal Mollasani
0.82

allows per match

Qashqai Shiraz
0.85
Esteghlal Mollasani
1.31

finishing

Qashqai Shiraz+0.00on par
Esteghlal Mollasani+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qashqai Shiraz ↓

Esteghlal Mollasani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Qashqai Shiraz or draw
73%
Qashqai Shiraz or Esteghlal Mollasani
69%
Draw or Esteghlal Mollasani
59%

Winning margin

Qashqai Shiraz wins by 2+
17%
Esteghlal Mollasani wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Qashqai Shiraz 1+ goals
66%
Qashqai Shiraz 2+ goals
30%
Qashqai Shiraz 3+ goals
10%
Esteghlal Mollasani 1+ goals
56%
Esteghlal Mollasani 2+ goals
20%
Esteghlal Mollasani 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Qashqai Shiraz (draw refunded)
60%
Esteghlal Mollasani (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qashqai Shiraz at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.85 · 54 matches

Esteghlal Mollasani away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.31 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qashqai Shiraz attack 0.87 + Esteghlal Mollasani defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.09

Esteghlal Mollasani attack 0.82 + Qashqai Shiraz defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Qashqai Shiraz scores more
41%
level
31%
Esteghlal Mollasani scores more
27%

Qashqai Shiraz at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Qashqai Shiraz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Qashqai Shiraz 3–1 Esteghlal Mollasani

Qashqai Shiraz beat Esteghlal Mollasani 3-1 in Azadegan League on February 14, 2021.

The match was played at Grand Shiraz Stadium in Shiraz.