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Esteghlal Mollasani vs Qashqai Shiraz — Azadegan League 2018

Esteghlal Mollasani
Esteghlal Mollasani
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Qashqai Shiraz
Qashqai Shiraz
3/11/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 21Shohadaye Foolad Khoozestan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Esteghlal Mollasani44%
×Draw30%
Qashqai Shiraz26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal Mollasani
1.19
Qashqai Shiraz
0.84

Esteghlal Mollasani creates 42% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 69 away

creates per match

Esteghlal Mollasani
1.04
Qashqai Shiraz
0.84

allows per match

Esteghlal Mollasani
0.84
Qashqai Shiraz
1.33

finishing

Esteghlal Mollasani+0.00on par
Qashqai Shiraz+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Mollasani ↓

Qashqai Shiraz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Esteghlal Mollasani or draw
74%
Esteghlal Mollasani or Qashqai Shiraz
70%
Draw or Qashqai Shiraz
56%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Mollasani wins by 2+
19%
Qashqai Shiraz wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Esteghlal Mollasani 1+ goals
70%
Esteghlal Mollasani 2+ goals
33%
Esteghlal Mollasani 3+ goals
12%
Qashqai Shiraz 1+ goals
57%
Qashqai Shiraz 2+ goals
21%
Qashqai Shiraz 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Mollasani (draw refunded)
63%
Qashqai Shiraz (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Mollasani at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.84 · 67 matches

Qashqai Shiraz away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.33 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Mollasani attack 1.04 + Qashqai Shiraz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.19

Qashqai Shiraz attack 0.84 + Esteghlal Mollasani defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Esteghlal Mollasani scores more
44%
level
30%
Qashqai Shiraz scores more
26%

Esteghlal Mollasani at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Esteghlal Mollasani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Esteghlal Mollasani vs Qashqai Shiraz

Esteghlal Mollasani and Qashqai Shiraz drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on March 11, 2022.

The match was played at Shohadaye Foolad Khoozestan in Ahvaz.