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Qashqai Shiraz vs Arvand Khorramshahr FC — Azadegan League 2018

Qashqai Shiraz
Qashqai Shiraz
FT
1 – 0
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
12/8/2018Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 16Grand Shiraz Stadium (Shīrāz (Shiraz))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Qashqai Shiraz49%
×Draw29%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qashqai Shiraz
1.30
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
0.77

Qashqai Shiraz creates 69% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 15 away

creates per match

Qashqai Shiraz
0.93
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
0.73

allows per match

Qashqai Shiraz
0.81
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
1.67

finishing

Qashqai Shiraz+0.00on par
Arvand Khorramshahr FC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qashqai Shiraz ↓

Arvand Khorramshahr FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Qashqai Shiraz or draw
78%
Qashqai Shiraz or Arvand Khorramshahr FC
71%
Draw or Arvand Khorramshahr FC
51%

Winning margin

Qashqai Shiraz wins by 2+
23%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Qashqai Shiraz 1+ goals
73%
Qashqai Shiraz 2+ goals
37%
Qashqai Shiraz 3+ goals
14%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC 1+ goals
54%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC 2+ goals
18%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Qashqai Shiraz (draw refunded)
69%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qashqai Shiraz at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.81 · 68 matches

Arvand Khorramshahr FC away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qashqai Shiraz attack 0.93 + Arvand Khorramshahr FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.30

Arvand Khorramshahr FC attack 0.73 + Qashqai Shiraz defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Qashqai Shiraz scores more
49%
level
29%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC scores more
22%

Qashqai Shiraz at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Qashqai Shiraz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Qashqai Shiraz vs Arvand Khorramshahr FC

Qashqai Shiraz beat Arvand Khorramshahr FC 1-0 in Azadegan League on December 8, 2018.

The match was played at Grand Shiraz Stadium (Shīrāz (Shiraz)).