Arvand Khorramshahr FC 1–0 Qashqai Shiraz

Arvand Khorramshahr FC

FT

1 – 0

Qashqai Shiraz

4/23/2019

Azadegan League · Round 33Khorramshahr Stadium (Khorramshahr)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Arvand Khorramshahr FC38%

×Draw34%

Qashqai Shiraz28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arvand Khorramshahr FCExpected goals in this matchQashqai Shiraz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

0.76

Arvand Khorramshahr FC

0.95

Qashqai Shiraz

0.76

Arvand Khorramshahr FC creates 25% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 69 away

0.56

creates per match

0.84

0.69

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Arvand Khorramshahr FC

0.56

Qashqai Shiraz

0.84

allows per match

Arvand Khorramshahr FC

0.69

Qashqai Shiraz

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arvand Khorramshahr FC+0.00on par

Qashqai Shiraz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arvand Khorramshahr FC ↓

Qashqai Shiraz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–114%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

25%75%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Arvand Khorramshahr FC or draw

72%

Arvand Khorramshahr FC or Qashqai Shiraz

66%

Draw or Qashqai Shiraz

62%

Winning margin

Arvand Khorramshahr FC wins by 2+

14%

Qashqai Shiraz wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Arvand Khorramshahr FC 1+ goals

61%

Arvand Khorramshahr FC 2+ goals

25%

Arvand Khorramshahr FC 3+ goals

7%

Qashqai Shiraz 1+ goals

53%

Qashqai Shiraz 2+ goals

18%

Qashqai Shiraz 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Arvand Khorramshahr FC (draw refunded)

58%

Qashqai Shiraz (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arvand Khorramshahr FC at home — creates 0.56, concedes 0.69 · 16 matches

Qashqai Shiraz away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.33 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arvand Khorramshahr FC attack 0.56 + Qashqai Shiraz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.95

Qashqai Shiraz attack 0.84 + Arvand Khorramshahr FC defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Arvand Khorramshahr FC scores more

38%

level

34%

Qashqai Shiraz scores more

28%

Arvand Khorramshahr FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Arvand Khorramshahr FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff