Qashqai Shiraz 0–0 Aluminium Arak: Result & Stats

Qashqai Shiraz

FT

0 – 0

Aluminium Arak

11/4/2018

Azadegan League · Round 11Grand Shiraz Stadium (Shīrāz (Shiraz))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Qashqai Shiraz34%

×Draw36%

Aluminium Arak29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Qashqai ShirazExpected goals in this matchAluminium Arak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.80

0.72

Qashqai Shiraz

0.80

Aluminium Arak

0.72

Qashqai Shiraz creates 11% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 30 away

0.94

creates per match

0.63

0.82

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Qashqai Shiraz

0.94

Aluminium Arak

0.63

allows per match

Qashqai Shiraz

0.82

Aluminium Arak

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qashqai Shiraz+0.00on par

Aluminium Arak+0.00on par

Total goals

Under80
Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qashqai Shiraz ↓

Aluminium Arak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–022%

0–116%

0–26%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–15%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

78%22%1.5

45%55%2.5

20%80%3.5

7%93%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Qashqai Shiraz or draw

71%

Qashqai Shiraz or Aluminium Arak

64%

Draw or Aluminium Arak

66%

Winning margin

Qashqai Shiraz wins by 2+

11%

Aluminium Arak wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Qashqai Shiraz 1+ goals

55%

Qashqai Shiraz 2+ goals

19%

Qashqai Shiraz 3+ goals

5%

Aluminium Arak 1+ goals

51%

Aluminium Arak 2+ goals

16%

Aluminium Arak 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Qashqai Shiraz (draw refunded)

54%

Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qashqai Shiraz at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.82 · 67 matches

Aluminium Arak away — creates 0.63, concedes 0.67 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qashqai Shiraz attack 0.94 + Aluminium Arak defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.80

Aluminium Arak attack 0.63 + Qashqai Shiraz defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Qashqai Shiraz scores more

34%

level

36%

Aluminium Arak scores more

29%

Qashqai Shiraz at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Qashqai Shiraz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff